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iPhone: 4% of market, 22% sales value and 50% of profit

With 90% growth iPhone takes even more of the market and the profit. A post by tech.fortune.cnn.com tells the story. Here are a part:

He’s a Romanian blogger with a Harvard MBA who lives in Finland. Go figure.

Horace Dediu. Photo: Rami Salle

What if you took all the estimates by all the analysts who write about Apple (AAPL) — and there are dozens — and ranked them by how closely their predictions matched the company’s quarterly earnings reports. Would you be interested in who came in first?

Daniel Tello, a Venezuelan amateur with a strong track record of his own, has done that for the past three quarters (see listhere and below the fold). The man you see at right rose to the top.

His name is Horace Dediu, and Wall Street could learn a thing or two from him.

He’s a 42-year-old Romanian engineer who started following Steve Jobs and company two years ago while doing market analysis for Nokia (NOK). His day job was to track Research in Motion (RIMM), not Apple.  “Apple wasn’t considered an interesting or valid threat, even in 2008,” he recalls.

But from reading the analysts reports he was getting at Nokia, he could tell that none of them understood the subscription accounting method Apple was using at the time to record iPhone sales. “I knew they were wrong,” he says. So he built his own spreadsheet.

“My model is very simple,” he says. “I look at growth rate.”



About mortjac

Norwegian social entrepreneur, blogger&Swift programmer. PM for the OMG GL standard. Using #ULab to give #Villajoyosa sustainable tourism&tunable pipe organs.


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